We don’t write about B2C topics but seeing our friends invest in Earth 2, we wanted to bring our perspective and transparency to the topic.
Earth 2 was launched in Dec/2020 with a similar premise like the Second Life social network where users would be interacting over a digital copy of the real world. Currently, there are limited ways to interact in this digital world and the interest is waning. However, individuals are speculating with real money in digital real estate. This could be viewed as an investment related topic so this disclaimer is necessary:
Please read our disclaimer about investing before reading this article.
Should you invest in it?
If you like to invest in the riskiest asset class and would be ok if you lost all your initial investment, yes. If you don’t like wasting money on a Ponzi scheme, no.
There are a few ways to evaluate an investment:
- Once you buy it, can you sell it? At least some Redditors couldn’t.
- Historical precedents. As Ray Dalio who founded the largest hedge fund, Bridgewater, keeps saying, history repeats itself.
- Underlying assets & capabilities vs the price. In other words, value investing as preached by Warren Buffett, one of the top 10 richest people.
Historical precedent
So far, we have seen that digital currencies are as strong as their digital worlds and given that the world behind Earth 2 does not exist beyond the purpose of real estate speculation, we find it to be a risky gamble.
Examples we believe to be similar are: Second Life, World of Warcraft. Since Earth2 does not provide any game or interactivity at the levels we have seen in these games, we don’t see present value in purchasing land there.
In the future Earth 2 could develop such game mechanics and build a valuable virtual economy but we could not initially come across any cases of in-game economies launched successfully without first launching a successful game.
Building a game with a successful virtual economy is a complex, failure-prone effort and successful game developers have hundreds of developers.
We looked into the Earth 2 team and noticed that at in the beginning, they had accomplished advisors like Dillion SEO. They appear to have an accomplished team but the size of the team doesn’t compare yet to typical companies that pulled off successful games with virtual economies and as per their LinkedIn account, their team is shrinking.
However, there were also successful games like Minecraft developed by relatively small development teams.
Underlying assets & capabilities
There is no utility or economic value of the land purchased on Earth 2. However, Earth 2 team built a market for reselling land and other users’ buying up land could lead to profits for investors. We couldn’t come across independently verifiable metrics on the liquidity of the market and would be curious to know.
So from a value investing / underlying assets perspective, this is as risky as it can get as an investment. It is riskier than an investment in a startup where the investor would have a claim in the equities of the startup. It is also riskier than a bitcoin investment where at least amount of bitcoin is programmatically fixed, creating scarcity. The only thing that is provided by this virtual land investment is the chance to be able to sell the land off at a future date if
- Earth 2 launches a successful game
- the game becomes successful enough to generate a virtual economy
- the land that you purchased ends up being valued higher
Or if someone would buy your land before all of these happen. There are a bit too many ifs in these sentences even when compared to a risky investment like early stage startup investing.
Is it a Ponzi scheme?
Currently it looks like one. People are investing with the hope that later other people will buy it from them at a higher price. The underlying asset currently has no real value, is centrally managed, can be manipulated by a relatively obscure party, the developer company and people already report cash withdrawal problems.
Initially, bitcoin could also be viewed as a Ponzi scheme however a decentralized network like Bitcoin has superior dynamics compared to an in-game currency since:
- Supply is limited and managed in a decentralized manner
- Transactions can be completed P2P or via exchanges
- There is transparency on transaction history
- It enables value generation via new use cases such as immediate, free funds transfers
If the developers create valuable applications on top of the earth2 software, then it would no longer be a Ponzi scheme but currently it appears to be one.
Please note that we are not professional investors, did not invest in Earth 2 and currently have done a relatively cursory search. For example, we are not clear on how they managed to reach their high levels of traffic as estimated by Alexa. Looking forward to your comments,
Comments
Your email address will not be published. All fields are required.